2020 silicon metal production and export analysis
Affected by the epidemic this year, the export of silicon metal has been restricted and has continued to be sluggish. As for the decline in domestic production, from January to September, output decreased by 123,000 tons year-on-year. By October, total output decreased by 106,000 tons year-on-year. In November, total output decreased by only 48,000 tons year-on-year.
The production of silicon metal was reduced in the first three quarters, and the market continued to be low. There was no good market to stimulate the enthusiasm of silicon metal factories to start operations. By October, after gradually increasing prices in July, factories in the wet season began to make profits, with fewer production cuts. Individual factories saw that the domestic downstream silicone and polysilicon markets were improving, and they began to hold a bullish perception of the long-term market. , Continue to overhaul and resume work. By mid-to-late November, domestic prices rose sharply, which attracted some shutdown factories to put into production one after another. Although the Sichuan-Yunnan Silicon Plant was affected by environmental protection, power curtailment, floods, etc., the operating rate was still higher than the same period in previous years.
For the silicon metal market in the future, it will be difficult to approve new factories, and the construction of new projects is difficult. It can only rely on factories that can be produced now. Individual large group companies will also begin to respond to the national call and integrate resources next year. From the perspective of domestic downstream expansion, it is fully capable of supporting the consumption of metal silicon, and the price of metal silicon may continue to fluctuate at high prices in the future.
For the silicon metal market, where prices have continuously risen continuously, the output in November will cover half of the output gap in the first 10 months. In December, the output may continue to increase by 20,000 to 30,000 tons year-on-year. The total output in 2020 may only decrease compared to 2019. It is only 30,000 tons, and the reduced export volume of 100,000 tons also needs to be digested by domestic terminals. The state of short supply is not as severe as imagined, and the high-priced bubble should also be part of the basic balance of supply and demand.
Anyang Huatuo has in the silicon metal for more than 10 years, know the silicon metal product and market well, if any need can contact us.
At present, most of the silicon metal factories that have no stock or intention to sell have increased by 500-1000RMB. This substantial price increase is not in line with the normal 1% price increase pattern of silicon metal, but compared with the upstream raw material electrode, the rate of increase is 1000-2000 In terms of RMB/week and downstream organic silicon DMC growth rate of 3000-5000 RMB/week, the price increase of metal silicon is still low-key. At present, it is difficult to find the purchase spot, and the high price gradually tends to be sold.