the price of industrial raw materials in China rose
Comparing the trends of major global commodities, we can see that in July this year, the risk aversion sentiment was strong, and the gold price reached a record high in August. From August to October, the risk aversion sentiment weakened, and the leading varieties turned to agricultural products with better fundamental conditions. The price index rose sharply, and the price of raw materials rose significantly. The raw material purchase price index was 62.6% and the ex-factory price index was 56.5%, up 3.8 and 3.3 percentage points respectively, setting a high point for the year. Driven by demand, prices of upstream products have risen significantly, and the price index of raw materials has risen sharply at a high level, breaking through 60%; in industries such as petroleum and coal, chemicals, ferrous metals, and non-ferrous metals, the raw material and ex-factory price indices are all above 60%.
However, since November, industrial products have rebounded across the board. According to statistics, as of November 24, ICE and NYMEX crude oil futures prices have both rebounded by more than 25%, and copper and aluminum prices have increased simultaneously. At the same time, there were also domestically listed industrial product futures, involving the petrochemical industry chain, coal coke steel industry chain, non-ferrous metals and some building materials futures. Ferroalloys, including ferrosilicon price and Silicon Metal price also increased a lot. Among them, polypropylene and aluminum futures prices have achieved the largest monthly increase since the second half of the year, even iron ore and rebar, which are not very superior in supply and demand. 11.32% and 6.13% increase. A more direct manifestation is that the scale of domestic futures market margins increased rapidly in the second half of the year. According to data from the China Futures Association, customer equity in the futures market was 629 billion yuan in April this year, and reached 800 billion yuan in October this year. Data from the Futures Market Monitoring Center shows that as of November 12, the total amount of funds in the futures market has exceeded 820 billion yuan.
The inventory index has rebounded, and the trend of total destocking remains unchanged. The raw material inventory index was 48.6%, an increase of 0.6%, and the finished product inventory index was 45.7%, an increase of 0.8%. From the comparison of historical averages, the finished product inventory index in November was lower than the historical average performance; in October, the growth rate of finished product inventories of industrial enterprises fell by 1.3 percentage points and returned to the downward channel.